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Crypto’s “discipline dividend”: The reward of patience amid volatility

CIO Notes

I had a fascinating conversation with an advisor last week that reminded me of two concepts that investors often use interchangeably: volatility and risk.

At first glance, they may sound similar. But for anyone building or managing portfolios, especially those that include growth assets like crypto and equities, the differences are profound. Understanding these distinctions is critical not just for managing money, but for managing behavior, which is often the true determinant of long-term investment success.

 

 

Volatility ≠ Risk

 

Volatility is one of the most misunderstood words in investing. It’s typically defined as a measure of how much prices fluctuate over a given period. Statistically, it represents the dispersion of returns around a mean—a way of estimating how far prices might move from their average, based on the assumption that 1) the past reflects the future and 2) returns follow a normal (bell-curve) distribution.

These assumptions are convenient for academic models, but they rarely capture the realities of how markets behave—especially in an emerging, high-growth asset class like crypto.

More importantly, volatility and risk are not the same thing. In simple terms, volatility is a temporary movement in price while risk is the possibility of permanent loss.

Volatility does not cause losses on its own. Losses only occur when investors act on volatility by selling into downturns. In other words, what transforms volatility into risk isn’t large price swings, but how the investor responds to these events.

Volatility is inherently important in markets. While it’s unpredictable, uncomfortable, and at times extreme, it’s also the price of admission for higher potential returns. The risk of turning that volatility into permanent capital loss, on the other hand, is something investors can control through time horizon, position sizing, and emotional discipline.

 

 

The Advisor’s Role: Framing Volatility the Right Way

 

The distinction between volatility and risk is particularly important for financial advisors, who serve as both portfolio architects and behavioral coaches through the ups and downs of market cycles. The key is helping clients set realistic expectations and build strategies that can withstand the inevitable swings. Three principles are essential:

 

  1. Invest only capital that won’t be needed within the investment horizon. In crypto, a four-year horizon (roughly one full market cycle) has historically been enough time for the long-term growth trend to overcome interim volatility.

 

  1. Size allocations according to emotional tolerance, not just financial capacity. If a 30% drawdown would cause a client to lose sleep, the position is too large. No amount of backtesting or risk modeling can compensate for the impact of fear-driven decisions.

 

  1. Focus on risk-adjusted returns. Narrowly looking at an asset through its volatility only can be limiting. An asset can be volatile and have the best risk-adjusted returns within a given portfolio. 


A 5-10% crypto allocation can improve risk-adjusted returns1

 

 

 

While Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can provide a useful framework for diversification and optimizing returns relative to risk, it doesn’t fully account for investor psychology.

Even the most rational investors are susceptible to emotional biases when confronted with red numbers. In practice, many investors check their portfolios too often, see near-term declines, and interpret volatility as loss. This triggers the instinct to “do something,” often selling the most volatile assets just before they rebound.

Ironically, the more diversified a portfolio is, the more visible these emotional triggers become. Dispersion between holdings naturally creates “winners” and “losers,” even if the portfolio as a whole is performing exactly as designed. When investors focus on individual line items rather than the overall strategy, they risk undoing the benefits of diversification by reacting to short-term noise.

This management of expectations is where advisors add enormous value. Regular, proactive conversations about volatility can prevent clients from turning temporary declines into permanent losses. The goal isn’t to eliminate volatility—that’s impossible and antithetical to price discovery—but to ensure clients don’t abandon a sound strategy midway through its journey.

 

 

Volatility is a Feature

 

For disciplined investors, volatility is an opportunity. It creates the conditions for rebalancing, one of the simplest and most effective long-term strategies. By systematically trimming positions that have appreciated and adding to those that have declined, investors are effectively buying low and selling high without trying to time the market. This process harnesses volatility rather than fearing it. Over multiple cycles, disciplined rebalancing can significantly improve risk-adjusted returns, all while reinforcing good behavioral habits.

In that sense, volatility isn’t just a test of patience, it’s an engine for long-term performance.

Crypto, in particular, offers a powerful illustration of this principle. Over the past decade, Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced multiple drawdowns exceeding 50%, yet long-term investors who maintained their allocations or rebalanced into those declines have historically been rewarded with exceptional compounded returns.

Of course, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. But the pattern is consistent across asset classes: markets tend to reward patience, not panic.

 

 

The Discipline Dividend

 

Investing is as much about temperament as it is about analysis. The best portfolios are not those that chase the highest returns, but those that can withstand the inevitable storms and allow compounding to do its work.

Volatility will always exist. It’s the reflection of millions of participants reacting to information, uncertainty, and emotion in real time. Investors can’t control that, but they can control their response.

True risk management, therefore, isn’t about eliminating volatility. It’s about cultivating the discipline to endure it. When advisors frame volatility as a test rather than a threat, clients begin to view market fluctuations differently—not as something to fear, but as something to navigate with confidence and purpose.

Because in the end, volatility doesn’t destroy wealth. A lack of discipline does.

 

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